Weekly commodity returns perspective by Ruchi Jain, NCDEX

Commenting on the weekly returns for select commodities,Ruchi Jain, Economist, National Commodity andDerivatives Exchange (NCDEX), said the following:
Cotton cake scored the highest returns in the festive week celebrating the transition of the Sun from the Tropic of Cancer to the Tropic of Capricorn (or from Dakshinayana to Uttarayana). Guar complex emerged as the second best performer with Guar trading firm on improved domestic demand as well as demand from the overseas market. Except Coriander, the week ending on 15th January saw Spices settling at the prices lower than the previous week.
As per data received from States, Wheat has been sown in over 288 lakh hectare, which is 9.3 lakh hectares more than last year by this time.
Oilseeds coverage is 89.40 lakh hectares and pulses 145.34 lakh hectares as on 14th January 2010 which is higher by 2.10 lakh hectares and 8.41 lakh hectares respectively compared to last year. However, the acreage of Maize is lower by 0.46 lakh hectares compared to last year at 14.34 lakh hectares.
According to the Solvent Extractors` Association of India, the import of vegetable oils during December 2010 is reported at 752,688 tons compared to 787,423 tons in December 2009, consisting of 730,194 tons of edible oils and 22,494 tons of non-edible oils. The overall import of vegetable oils during November and December 2010 is reported at 1,421,605 tons compared to 1,541,389 tons i.e. down by 8%. Current stock of edible oils as on Jan.01, 2011 at various ports is estimated at 645,000 tons (CPO 460,000 tons, RBD Palmolein 90,000 tons, Degummed Soybean Oil 50,000 tons, Crude Sunflower Oil 40,000 tons and Rape/Cotton Oil 5,000 tons) and about 750,000 tons in pipelines. Total stock both at ports and in pipelines is estimated at 1,395,000 tons compared to 1,410,000 tons as on Dec.01, 2010. Import of non-edible oil during November and December 2010 is reported at 39,149 tons compared to 66,877 tons during the same period of lastyear i.e. decreased by 41%.

The weekly returns of select commodities, a set of agricultural, metals and energy products based on their spot prices are calculated to look at the performance of commodities as an investment alternative. There are a number of factors that affect the returns of the commodities which not only emanate from the domestic front but also reflect the global demand-supplyequations. While it is true that the returns delivered in the past
are not a reflection or indication of the returns that would accrue in the future, it is nevertheless interesting to compare the same and analyze these differences.
Methodology
Weekly return for each commodity is calculated as in (price on w/price on w-1) where w is the weekend day and w-1 is the weekend day of previous week.

(Source: http://www.myiris.com/newsCentre/storyShow.php?fileR=20110117115139043&dir=2011/01/17&secID=livenews)